South Korean support for a domestic nuclear arsenal is growing — for surprising reasons | The Japan Times

South Korean support for a domestic nuclear arsenal is growing — for surprising reasons | The Japan Times

South Korean support for a domestic nuclear arsenal is growing — for surprising reasons


South Korean Marines take part in a drill on Yeonpyeong Island in November 2018. | POOL / VIA REUTERS

BY JESSE JOHNSON

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Feb 23, 2022

South Korean public support for a domestic nuclear weapons program has remained high over the past decade, but a new survey has found that a robust majority strongly backs such an arsenal over stationing U.S. nukes in the country — despite the potential for negative blowback — in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness.

The poll, released Tuesday by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, found that 71% of the South Koreans surveyed favor Seoul developing its own nuclear weapons, while 56% support a deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in the country. However, when asked to choose between the two options, 67% backed a domestic arsenal, compared with just 9% who supported a U.S. deployment, highlighting a clear preference and desire for greater control over any deployment.

Delving deeper, the researchers said that South Korean attitudes toward the weapons do not strongly align with the reasons for going nuclear usually offered by politicians and pundits. Although the desire has often been said to stem from Pyongyang’s ever-improving nuclear and missile arsenal, the survey found “threats other than North Korea” in the near future to be one of the main drivers of support for a domestic nuclear program.

North Korea, currently seen by 46% of respondents as the biggest threat to the South, tested an intermediate-range missile that could strike all of Japan — and beyond — in January, opening the door to tests of increasingly powerful weapons after years of focusing on sophisticated, but less provocative, launches.

However, when asked to assess the threat landscape a decade from now, a majority — 56% — said China will pose the biggest threat to South Korea, while just 22% said it would be North Korea.

Still, the poll found that a strong secondary motivation for acquiring a nuclear arsenal would be the prestige afforded to nuclear weapons states, with 26% citing bolstering South Korea’s stature within the international community as the main reason for their support. The figure was similar in number to those citing the need to counter the North Korean threat, at 23%.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets nuclear scientists and technicians in this undated photo released in March 2016. | KCNA / VIA REUTERS

What’s more, public support for both a domestic arsenal and a U.S. deployment appears strong even in the face of potential negative repercussions for South Korea’s relations with China, its economic security, its alliance with the U.S. and hopes for North Korea’s denuclearization.

Among the majority backing nuclear weapons acquisition, 89% continue to support such a move when presented with these implications, meaning just 11% were sufficiently concerned about the consequences to change their minds. This contrasts with the situation just six years ago, when Seoul reluctantly faced down informal Chinese sanctions for hosting the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system.

Seoul has been seen by some as reluctant to alienate Beijing, its top trade partner, with the country seeking to stake out the middle ground between China and the United States. However, it has quietly drifted closer to Washington as Sino-U.S. competition has grown.

As for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, and fears that American credibility has been severely damaged by the tempestuous years when President Donald Trump was in office, the survey noted relatively stable levels of confidence in the United States’ commitment to defending its ally.

More intriguingly, however, it also found that — contrary to conventional thinking among analysts and politicians — South Koreans’ support for nuclear weapons remained strong even when they felt confident in the U.S. alliance.

Toby Dalton, co-director and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program and a co-author of the report, noted several plausible explanations for this, including a belief that South Korean nuclear weapons would strengthen the alliance, provide strategic autonomy and give Seoul prestige on the global stage — or even all three at the same time.

“But another is that U.S. efforts to strengthen the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence commitments in the face of growing North Korean nuclear threats have succeeded in convincing South Koreans that nuclear weapons are necessary … and now they want their own,” he wrote on Twitter.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor in Seongju, South Korea, in June 2017 | REUTERS

Although the issue of nuclear weapons in South Korea was once considered taboo — the U.S. pressured Seoul in the 1970s to abandon its quest for a nuclear arsenal — the question of acquiring the weapons has gone mainstream over the past 10 years.

Public opinion polling over that time span has consistently shown majority support of around 60% for possessing an atomic arsenal, and some South Korean politicians have argued for the return of U.S. tactical nukes, which were stationed in the South from 1958 to 1991, before being removed as part of a global American drawdown of deployed weapons.

Although nuclear weapons have not been a significant issue in campaigning for South Korea's March 9 presidential election, where the two front-runners remain neck and neck with just two weeks to go, both leading candidates have offered up positions.

Lee Jae-myung, the ruling Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, has said that going nuclear or reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons is "unrealistic, irresponsible and dangerous" and that “Japan could use it as justification for developing its own nuclear weapons.”

Yoon Seok-youl, his rival from the conservative People Power Party, said last September that he would request not only a redeployment of U.S. tactical weapons but also nuclear sharing, though he later appeared to walk back this position.

In the end, the nuclear question was not mentioned in either party’s policy platform, effectively pushing that debate into the background.

Still, the survey suggests it won’t remain there for long.

“Even though the nuclear issue is not prominent in campaigns ahead of South Korea’s … election, the growing threats in the region and doubts about the security alliance with the United States make the nuclear question increasingly relevant,” the survey authors wrote.