After Ukraine, it’s time to take North Korea’s reunification aims seriously
Few expected Russia to invade. Now the world must prepare for the day DPRK too presses its land claims over South Korea
Benjamin R. Young March 17, 2022
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Soldiers salute from armored tanks as they roll through Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade, April 2017 | Image: NK News (file)
As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, it’s almost hard to remember that for months before the invasion, many thought it would never happen.
Experts and analysts cited the huge financial costs that would be unbearable for the Kremlin. Others believed Putin was merely saber-rattling in order to get the best deal out of NATO negotiations. One researcher wrote that a full-scale war was out of character for Russia’s grand strategy and “does not really fit into how the Kremlin has used hard power in its geopolitical games.”
In other words, Russia’s invasion took many by surprise. We shouldn’t be surprised, however, if and when North Korea restarts military conflict with South Korea.
Just as Russian leader Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine as an inalienable part of Russian civilization, the North Korean leadership views reunification of the Korean Peninsula as a sacred duty. The international community needs to prepare for the day Pyongyang tries to press its claims to all of Korea.
VIOLENT REUNIFICATION
This is not an outlandish scenario in 2022. What Putin is demonstrating is that autocrats live in a separate echo chamber, not necessarily an irrational one, but one with an altogether different set of values than most people.
Often, authoritarian leaders believe their own myths and that they have an indispensable role to play in world history. For example, given his worldview of Russian greatness and imperial visions of a rejuvenated Russian Empire, Putin is acting rationally. For him, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. If you take these views seriously, Putin’s war in Ukraine makes perfect sense. The regime in Kyiv was illegitimate and therefore a direct affront to Russian dignity.
We need to apply this same seriousness to North Korean official rhetoric and ideology. It is time to stop regarding North Korea’s militant discourse as irrational hogwash and Kim Jong Un as a buffoonish leader concerned only with his own luxurious life. Korea faces an impending security crisis that will involve nuclear powers, most notably the U.S. and China.
The Han River that bisects Seoul, the South Korean capital | Image: PixabayLike Moscow sees Kyiv, Pyongyang sees the government in Seoul as illegitimate — a U.S puppet regime. This view has not changed since the 1940s, and North Korea dreams of reunifying the two Koreas under Pyongyang’s terms. We should not dismiss these reunification aims as mere talk.
With long-range artillery, sophisticated cyber capabilities and a nuclear arsenal, North Korea’s military should not be taken lightly. Add in military assistance and logistical support from Beijing, and North Korea has a formidable conventional and irregular military force that could destabilize the entire Indo-Pacific region.
Compared to the “freer” atmosphere of Russia, the North Korean government indoctrinates and mobilizes its citizens on a massive scale. During the COVID-19 pandemic, political education has taken on greater importance in the DPRK.
Unlike Russian soldiers in Ukraine, North Korea’s massive army would be much more motivated in liberating their southern brethren. From an early age, North Koreans have been taught that the South Koreans are oppressed under Western imperialism. They will be highly motivated to fight if unleashed on the battlefield.
CHIPPING AWAY
Kim Jong Un’s reunification plan will be an integrated political and military strategy. Pyongyang’s notion of “final victory” is a longer term plan that is meant to slowly weaken South Korean political and cultural institutions.
First, a large body of evidence suggests North Koreans hope to remove the U.S. military presence from the Korean Peninsula. Former U.S. President Donald Trump nearly did that during his four-year term. Trump’s former ambassador to Germany said, “Donald Trump was very clear, we want to bring troops from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, from South Korea, Japan, from Germany.” If Trump, or a member of his family, is elected in 2024, there is a very real possibility that the U.S. removes its troops from South Korean soil.
Second, in their reunification plan, the North Koreans will slowly cut away at the strength of South Korean political institutions and advance the withering away of the ROK state. From disseminating misinformation to launching small-scale guerilla attacks, North Korea’s pro-reunification revolutionary strategy will involve a mix of irregular warfare and covert political operations.
This may even involve overtaking a small part of South Korean territory. Akin to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Pyongyang could take an island or islands in disputed waters off Korea’s west coast. Let’s not forget that back in 2010 North Korean artillery bombarded Yeonpyeong island, killing four and nearly instigating the South Koreans into retaliating.
A fishing boat off the coast of Yeonpyeong-do, the South Korean island near the inter-Korean maritime border that was hit by North Korean artillery fire in 2010, killing four | Image: NK News (file)What will happen when Pyongyang takes a small piece of South Korean territory or infiltrates ROK high politics with pro-DPRK agents? As we have seen in South Korea, little is done to deter North Korean aggression and military adventurism. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and artillery have long-held Seoul in check and reduced the ability of an assertive response to Pyongyang’s provocations.
The government in Seoul typically issues some strongly worded condemnations and then quickly goes back to settling domestic political squabbles. For too long, the South Korean government, especially those on the Left, has treated Pyongyang as the slightly crazy uncle in the family but one that is still considered an essential part of the ethnic nation (minjok).
Putin’s war in Ukraine has broken many conventions of international norms and standards. Many Westerners simply believed a conventional land war in 21st century Europe was out of the realm of possibility. Let’s not make these same mistakes in Korea.
North Korea has acted belligerently in the past and the same tyrannical family-led regime in Pyongyang even invaded the South in 1950. It is more likely than not it will try and do so again. Kim Jong Un is part of a system and political culture that adheres to a belief in the inevitability of Korean reunification. It is time to take that idea seriously.
Edited by Arius Derr
About the Author
Benjamin R. Young is an Assistant Professor of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness at VCU (Virginia Commonwealth University). He is the author of Guns, Guerillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World (Stanford University Press, 2021). He received his Ph.D. from The George Washington University in 2018. He has previously taught at the U.S. Naval War College and Dakota State University. He has published peer-reviewed articles on North Korean history and politics in a number of scholarly journals and is a regular contributor to NK News.
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