Wednesday, May 29, 2024

[평양서 맨해튼까지] 아이비리그 대학원생 탈북 남매의 뉴욕 생존기 — RFA 자유아시아방송

[평양서 맨해튼까지] 아이비리그 대학원생 탈북 남매의 뉴욕 생존기 — RFA 자유아시아방송

[평양서 맨해튼까지] 아이비리그 대학원생 탈북 남매의 뉴욕 생존기
워싱턴-박재우, 자민 앤더슨 parkja@rfa.org
2024.05.29



Photo: RFA


[기자] 이렇게 있을 때 좀 뉴요커 같으세요?

[이현승] 제가 아직 저를 뉴요커라고 생각해 본 적이 없어서... 이제 평양 뉴요커라고 해야겠네요.

[기자] 미국에 올 수 있을 거라고 생각했어요?

[이현승] 꿈에도 생각을 못 했죠. 미국에 가고 싶은 마음 있었는데 어떻게 갈지 모르니까 막막했었죠.

지난 3월 말, 미국 뉴욕 맨해튼에 위치한 컬럼비아 대학교.

[이현승] 여기가 메인 캠퍼스 들어가는 입구입니다. 입구가 양쪽으로 있어서, 암스테르담 대로와 브로드웨이 대로에서 모두 들어올 수 있어요. 여기를 중심으로 해서 학교 건물이 위치해 있는거죠.

탈북민 이현승 씨는 지난해 9월 미국 컬럼비아대 공공정책대학원에 입학했습니다.

[이현승] 마음 졸이는 것 있잖아요. 온라인으로 (합격 발표를) 열어서 보는데, 축하하는 별이 뜨거든요. 그게 안 뜨면 떨어진 거죠. 근데 별이 뜨고 하니까 기분이 좋았죠. 아 다행이다.

김일성 종합대학교 출신 이서현 씨도 같은 학교에 재학중에 있습니다. 현승 씨의 여동생인데요, 현승 씨보다 1년 먼저 입학해 선배가 됐습니다.

[이서현] 솔직하게 비슷하게 좋았던 것 같아요. 그 대학(김일성종합대학)은 그때 당시 제 입장에서는 최고의 대학이었고. 지금은 제가 김일성종합대학 입학 허가증을 받았다고 하면 바로 쓰레기통에 버렸겠죠.

이현승 씨 가족은 10년전 중국에서 탈북했다. 당시 이들은 도청을 피해 휴대폰 등 전자기기를 차 안에 두고 공원에서 탈북 계획을 세웠다. /RFA Rebel Pepper

현승 씨와 서현 씨는 북한 노동당 39호실 고위 간부 출신인 아버지, 어머니와 함께 10년 전 북한을 탈출했습니다.

당시 김정은 북한 노동당 총비서가 자신의 고모부인 장성택을 처형한 이후 1년도 되지 않은 혼란한 시기였는데요.

특히 서현 씨는 중국에서 4년 내내 기숙사를 함께 썼던 북한 친구가 하루아침에 자신의 눈 앞에서 보위부 요원들에게 잡혀 끌려가는 모습을 지켜봐야 했습니다.

주변 인물들이 숙청당하자 언제라도 자신들이 다음 차례가 될 수 있겠다고 생각한 가족들은 중국의 한 공원에서 비밀리에 회동을 했습니다.

도감청을 피하기 위해 차안에 휴대폰과 각종 전자기기를 두고 탈북에 대한 토론을 이어갔습니다.

[이서현] 일단 탈북을 하는 과정 동안은 정신이 없고, 꿈 속을 걷는 것 같은 느낌이었어요. 실제로 이 일이 벌어지고 있구나, 저희도 믿기 어려운. 그때는 너무 긴장이 됐죠. 어느 순간 누가 나타나서 누가 덮칠지 모르는 상황이었고….

북한 선전매체인 ‘우리민족끼리TV’는 리정호 씨 가족이 탈북한 2년 뒤인 2016년 리 씨의 어머니와 형제들을 출연시켜 재입북을 종용했습니다. 사실상 북한 당국의 협박 메시지였습니다.

게다가 북한으로 추정되는 도청과 해킹 공격에 시달리면서 결국 2016년 3월 미국으로의 망명을 결정했습니다.

수업에서 이현승 씨가 우크라이나 전쟁과 북미 관계에 대해 발표를 하고 있는 모습. 자신을 탈북 난민이라고 소개했다. /RFA Photo

[이현승] I am North Korean refugee, I am wondering….

매 수업에 적극적으로 참여하는 현승씨. 친구들과 사이도 좋아 보입니다.

현승씨와 친구들은 수업이 끝난 뒤 대학 앞 한 맥줏집으로 이동합니다. 현승씨 주위에 친구들이 모여있는데요.

탈북 전 북한 인민군으로 복무했던 그는 한때 적군이었던 이를 절친으로 만드는 기술도 있나 봅니다.

[제임스 브라운] 현승이는 저의 가장 친한 친구입니다. 그렇지만 한때 저는 비무장지대(DMZ) 남쪽에 있었고 현승이는 DMZ 북쪽에 있었습니다. 같은 기간 서로에 대항해 훈련을 하기도 했을거구요. 재미있죠.

컬럼비아 대학교의 한 강당에서 영화 ‘비욘드 유토피아’ 시사회가 열렸다. 해당 시사회는 탈북민 남매 중 동생 이서현씨가 한인 동호회와 함께 개최했다. /RFA Photo

다음 날 저녁 컬럼비아 대학의 한 강당에서 북한 동요가 들립니다. 탈북 여정을 담은 다큐멘터리 영화 ‘비욘드 유토피아’ 교내 시사회가 열린 건데요.

함께 시사회를 준비한 친구와 대화 중인 서현 씨 모습이 보입니다.

서현 씨는 교내 한인 동아리 ‘코리아 포커스’ 친구들과 함께 3달 전부터 이번 행사를 준비했습니다.

상영회가 시작됐지만 서현 씨는 영화에 집중하지 못하고 강당 밖 창가에 걸터 앉아 있습니다.

이날은 서현씨가 듣고 있는 수업의 시험 과제 마감일 날이기도 합니다. 마지막까지 검토를 하고 있습니다. 바쁜 와중에도 이 행사를 개최한 이유가 궁금해집니다.

[이서현] 이 활동이 학생으로서 의무는 아니지만 북한에서 탈출한 학생으로서 이를 알리는 것이 의무라고 생각합니다.

행사를 주최한 친구들과 뒷풀이를 위해 맨해튼의 한인타운으로 가는 길.

[이서현] 저도 했는데, 몇개가 제대로 답을 했나? 헷갈려서 확인을 해보려고요.

서현 씨가 택시 안에서 시험과제를 마무리하고 있습니다. 아슬아슬하게 마감 시간 10분 전 제출에 성공했습니다.

자유의 여신상을 방문하기 위해 페리에 탄 이현승 씨의 모습. 현승 씨는 미국에 오기가 쉽지 않다고 자유아시아방송에 말했다. /RFA Photo


날이 밝았습니다. 현승 씨가 이른 아침부터 지하철을 탔습니다. 뉴욕의 명물 자유의 여신상을 보기 위해선데요, 약 30분 후 맨하탄 남쪽 선착장에 도착했습니다.

[이현승] 이 배에 타는 분들이 이민자고 여행자이잖아요. 저걸 보면서 아메리칸 드림도 꿀 수 있고 자유를 몸으로 느끼려고 온 것 같아요.

자유를 위해 북한을 떠난 현승 씨에겐 ‘자유의 여신상’이 주는 의미는 남다를 수밖에 없습니다.

[이현승] 탈북 후 처음 3년 정도는, 정착도 해야 하고 여러 상황들이 겹치다 보니까 진정한 자유를 느끼기보다는 생활에 집중했던 것 같습니다. 그 후에 사회를 접하고 교육을 받으면서 자유의 개념을 배우고 있는 것 같아요.

그렇다면, 표현의 자유 수준이 전 세계 최하위라는 북한에서 탈출한 컬럼비아 반전 시위 사태를 어떻게 생각할까?

[이현승] 한 가지는 부럽기도 하고, 미국이 참 이 표현의 자유를 존중해 주는 나라라는 게 이 가슴에 와닿습니다. 북한이나 중국 같으면 그런 일을 상상할 수가 없죠. 일단은 시작이 되면 진압이 되면 끝이에요. 근데 지금 이 표현의 자유가 자유를 넘어서 다른 학생들에게 지금 불편을 주고 있고 또 건물 점거 등 약간 폭력적으로 시위가 변질이 됐어요.

워싱턴 포스트는 현승씨 가족을 북한의 상위 1%라고 소개했다. 이들은 고위 간부 리정호씨의 자녀로서 엘리트 교육을 받았다. /워싱턴 포스트


현승 씨는 한인 마트에 가 미뤄온 장을 보려고 합니다.

[이현승] 학교 주변에 다행히 한국 마트가 있어요.

물가 때문인지 마트에서 과일 하나 고르는 것도 쉽지 않습니다.

[이현승] 물가가 많이 비싸니까 고민이 됩니다. 장을 볼 때 마다. 세일이 지금 이 시간대에 되려나?

지난 2016년 미국의 일간지 워싱턴포스트는 현승씨 가족을 ‘북한 상위 1% 엘리트 계층’으로 소개하며, 평양에 살면서 마치 뉴욕 맨해튼과 같은 삶의 수준을 누렸다며 이들이 사는 세계를 ‘평해튼’이라는 신조어로 묘사하기도 했습니다.

이 때문인지 가족들이 탈북에 대해 결심했을 때 어머니 김부경 씨는 자본주의 사회에 잘 적응할지가 걱정이었습니다. 그간 최고위층 간부의 가족으로 어려움 없는 생활을 누려왔기 때문입니다.


그 때 어머니 김부경 씨를 안심시킨 건 두 남매였습니다. 아버지 리정호씨의 말입니다.

[아버지 리정호] 우리 집사람이 ‘우리가 자본주의 사회에 가면 돈이 없잖아, 어떻게 살겠나’ 그랬는데 이제 현승이하고 서현이가 우리가 가서 벌 테니까 그런 건 걱정하지 말라….

그러나 자본주의는 쉽지 않았습니다. 미국 정착 후 벌써 8 년. 이들 남매 역시 이민자로서 다르지 않은 경험을 했습니다.

[이현승] 라면집에서 웨이터로 일했고, 주차장 알바도 했었고. 주차 알바 할 때 제가 실수를 했어요. 그러니까 손님이 저한테 화를 내면서 인종차별이라고 해야 되나? 저를 어떤 중국사람(Some Chinese Guy)이라고 말을 했대요. 저는 그때 당시에 인종차별인 줄은 몰랐어요. 그런데 다른 애들이 그 옆에서 말리는 거예요. 인종차별이라고…. 그렇게 또 미국 사회에 대해서 배운 거죠.

교내 캠퍼스에 위치한 카페에서 과제를 하고 있는 이서현 씨의 모습. 과제와 시사회 준비로 바쁜 날들을 보낸 서현 씨는 전날 하루를 꼬박 앓았다. /RFA Photo

하루새 시사회 개최에 시험에 과제까지 무리했나봅니다. 서현 씨는 다음날 꼬박 하루를 앓았습니다.

[이서현] 크게 질병은 없는데, 피로가 쌓이면 면역이 떨어지다보니까 이게 긴장을 하고 있다가 갑자기 끝나는 동시에 풀리다 보니까 그래서 그런가 봐요. 긴장을 놓아서 그런가 봐요.

몸도 다 나았겠다, 이젠 홀가분한 마음으로 함께 공부했던 친구들을 만나러 갑니다.

[이서현] 지금 비지니스스쿨에 가고 있는데요, 친구들을 만나러요. 한 명은 같이 공부했던 친군데 작년에 졸업했고, 다른 한 명은 비지니스 스쿨에서 공부하고 있는 친구입니다. 우연히 친구의 친구를 통해서 알게 됐는데. 근데 못 본 지 되게 오래됐어요. 다들 너무 바쁘게 살다 보니까,

이제는 누가봐도 뉴요커가 된 서현 씨. 하지만 미국에 올 때까지 세계의 수도 ‘뉴욕’을 몰랐다고 합니다.

[이서현] 전혀 몰랐던 것 같아요. 들어본 적도 없었던 것 같아요. 북한에 있을 때는 나라와 수도는 다 배우거든요. 그래서 워싱턴 디씨는 알았는데 뉴욕은 딱히 몰랐었어요. 처음 왔을 때 한 거의 2~3개월 동안은 저녁에 해가 지면 못 나가겠는 거예요, 무서워서. 근데 역시 인간은 적응의 동물인가 봐요. 바로 적응해서 지금은 잘 다녀요.

이현승, 이서현 남매는 자본주의의 꽃으로 알려진 뉴욕 타임스퀘어를 방문했다. /RFA Photo



비가 내리는 날씨에도 네온사인 불빛으로 환한 이 곳은 타임스퀘어. 두 남매는 자본주의의 상징에서 북한에 남아있는 사람들을 생각합니다.

[이서현] 사실 보면 북한에도 정말 재능이 많은 친구들이 많은데 자신의 재능을 깨달을 기회조차 없이 노예처럼 생활하고 살아가고 있다는 것이 가장 가슴 아픈 점인 것 같아요.

[이현승] 자유가 없었을 때는 모르잖아요. 내가 자유가 있는지 없는지 모르잖아요. 일단 있어보면 뺏기고 싶지 않아요. 그래서 더 소중해지는 것 같아요. 북한 주민들이 자유를 찾아야 하는 목소리 높이는 것도, 그 사람들이 자유를 가져봐야 한다고 생각합니다

두 사람은 지금 누리고 있는 자유와 새롭게 얻은 기회들이 더 소중하게 느껴집니다

곧 졸업과 함께 미국사회에 진출을 앞두고 있는 이현승, 이서현 남매.

뉴욕의 고물가에 취업 준비라는 부담감도 있지만 이들에게 졸업은 '걱정'이 아니라 ‘설렘’입니다.

위험 속에서 목숨 걸고 탈북을 감행하고, ‘미국’으로 정착한 두 남매에겐 새 시작은 그리 어렵지 않아 보입니다.

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One-Third of U.S. Supports Nuclear War on North Korea, Knowing It Would Kill One Million, Report Shows


Vladimir Tikhonov
orStepdsonh83uu22ff76ifc877hf0g885g22uhl14700u6ftta29t7gim9f ·



Racism kills. I see it as a consequence of long-term war-mongering and threat-mongering, but also as a final product of long-present, structural racism - this idea that "Asian" life is somewhat cheaper and that obliterating an "Asian" country "preventively" is a tolerable modus operandi.



Tae Yang Kwak
orStepdsonh83u9J2ff76ifc 2 nfeg885g22uhl14500u6ftta29t0gimu1 ·

#ThisIsAmerica #America: Can Americans be trusted with nuclear weapons?
#OrientalLives:

"One-third of the United States population would support a preemptive attack on North Korea, even in a nuclear scenario, knowing it would kill one million innocent people, according to a recent survey.

"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in collaboration with U.K.-based research firm YouGov, published a new study Monday detailing U.S. public opinion on military conflict with North Korea at a time when the pace of a historic peace process between the longtime rivals appeared to slow. Among the most 'disturbing' results discovered was that 'a large hawkish minority lurks within the U.S. public; over a third of respondents approve of a US preventive strike across the scenarios and appear insensitive to informational cues that most security experts would expect to reduce such levels of support.'"




One-Third of U.S. Supports Nuclear War on North Korea, Knowing It Would Kill One Million, Report Shows


One-Third of U.S. Supports Nuclear War on North Korea, Knowing It Would Kill One Million, Report Shows
Published Jun 24, 2019 at 2:18 PM EDT


By Tom O'Connor
Senior Writer, Foreign Policy & Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
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One-third of the United States population would support a preemptive attack on North Korea, even in a nuclear scenario, knowing it would kill one million innocent people, according to a recent survey.


The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in collaboration with U.K.-based research firm YouGov, published a new study Monday detailing U.S. public opinion on military conflict with North Korea at a time when the pace of a historic peace process between the longtime rivals appeared to slow. Among the most "disturbing" results discovered was that "a large hawkish minority lurks within the U.S. public; over a third of respondents approve of a US preventive strike across the scenarios and appear insensitive to informational cues that most security experts would expect to reduce such levels of support."

Little changed when the U.S. first-strike was switched from conventional to nuclear as "33 percent preferred." In fact, "there is no significant change in the percentage who would prefer or approve of a U.S. nuclear strike when the number of estimated North Korean fatalities increases from 15,000 to 1.1 million, including 1 million civilians."

The researchers said these results actually demonstrated a previously-established pattern among the U.S. public, which "exhibits only limited aversion to nuclear weapons use and a shocking willingness to support the killing of enemy civilians."


A toddler looks on as people watch a television news broadcast showing images of Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting with North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, in a public square outside the... More ED JONES/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
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The U.S. remains the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons in combat with the August 1945 atomic bombings of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing an estimated 250,000 people. In the decades since, nuclear weapons have only grown exponentially in might and North Korea—created alongside South Korea when World War II allies the Soviet Union and the U.S. split the once-Japanese-occupied peninsula shortly after the bombings—has managed to develop a nuclear arsenal of its own in spite of strict international sanctions.

Shuttering North Korea's nuclear program has been the goal of several successive U.S. administrations, but President Donald Trump hoped to break new ground by becoming the first in his position to meet a North Korean ruler with his debut summit alongside supreme leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore last year. The two agreed to move forward with a denuclearization-for-peace process, but even follow-up talks in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi in February failed to produce any deal.


Despite blaming one another's countries for apparent stalls in nuclear negotiations, Trump and Kim have managed to maintain an amicable relationship, demonstrated by their affinity for writing letters to another. Their occasional expressions of admiration for one another were a far cry from their initial impressions upon Trump's entrance to office in 2017, a year that saw the two exchange threats of nuclear destruction.

The pair may have considerably changed their tone, but many others remain skeptical as Washington has insisted on its unconditional "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization" approach. Should Trump and Kim's relationship suffer a falling out, even more participants in Monday's study indicated they would back the president in taking action.


"Across all conditions, approval for the US strike is notably (although not always significantly, in a statistical sense) higher than preference, meaning a number of respondents discount their personal preferences in favor of the president's," the report found. "For example, while 'only' 33 percent of the US public prefer a US preventive nuclear strike that would kill 15,000 North Koreans, 50 percent approve."
President Donald Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un smile during a meeting at the second U.S.-North Korea summit at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, February 28. Despite blaming one another's... More SAUL LOEB/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
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Answers were also influenced by political beliefs. While most respondents overall opposed military action against North Korea, the "majority of Trump supporters prefer the US strike in every scenario, except when confidence in the effectiveness of the US conventional strike is 50 percent"—and even then it remained at 44 percent as opposed to a mere 8 percent for non-supporters. Separately, those who backed the death penalty were actually more eager to inflict a higher death toll among North Korean civilians.

"When the number of expected North Korean fatalities increased from 15,000 to 1.1 million, preference for using nuclear weapons among respondents who favor the death penalty increased from 38 percent to 49 percent (although this is not a statistically significant change)," the report found. "One respondent who supported the death penalty and the US nuclear strike in this scenario explained, "It's our best chance of eliminating the North Koreans.' Another simply stated, 'to end North Korea.' By contrast, preference for the nuclear strike among those who oppose the death penalty fell from 26 percent to 7 percent across the same two scenarios."


The survey also exposed "how deeply misinformed Americans are about US offensive and defensive military capabilities," partially blaming misleading claims made by Trump. More than a third of respondents felt that the U.S. could take out North Korea's nuclear weapons in a single round of strikes and up to 74 percent thought the U.S. would be able to intercept a trio of incoming North Korea nuclear-tipped missiles—two assertions deeply disputed by experts.

The study concluded with a call "for a renewed effort at mass public nuclear education" and so scientists and social scientists "can communicate the facts and, therefore, influence the calculations of an informed public."
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About the writerTom O'Connor

Sunday, May 5, 2024

North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger

North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger



North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger
1 day ago
By Jean Mackenzie,Seoul correspondent
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Conflict Armament ResearchAn unusual-looking wreckage that holds many clues

On 2 January, a young Ukrainian weapons inspector, Khrystyna Kimachuk, got word that an unusual-looking missile had crashed into a building in the city of Kharkiv. She began calling her contacts in the Ukrainian military, desperate to get her hands on it. Within a week, she had the mangled debris splayed out in front of her at a secure location in the capital Kyiv.

She began taking it apart and photographing every piece, including the screws and computer chips smaller than her fingernails. She could tell almost immediately this was not a Russian missile, but her challenge was to prove it.

Buried amidst the mess of metal and spouting wires, Ms Kimachuk spotted a tiny character from the Korean alphabet. Then she came across a more telling detail. The number 112 had been stamped onto parts of the shell. This corresponds to the year 2023 in the North Korean calendar. She realised she was looking at the first piece of hard evidence that North Korean weapons were being used to attack her country.

"We'd heard they had delivered some weapons to Russia, but I could see it, touch it, investigate it, in a way no-one had been able to do before. This was very exciting", she told me over the phone from Kyiv.

Since then, the Ukrainian military says dozens of North Korean missiles have been fired by Russia into its territory. They have killed at least 24 people and injured more than 70.


For all the recent talk of Kim Jong Un preparing to start a nuclear war, the more immediate threat is now North Korea's ability to fuel existing wars and feed global instability.

Ms Kimachuk works for Conflict Armament Research (CAR), an organisation that retrieves weapons used in war, to work out how they were made. But it wasn't until after she had finished photographing the wreckage of the missile and her team analysed its hundreds of components, that the most jaw-dropping revelation came.

It was bursting with the latest foreign technology. Most of the electronic parts had been manufactured in the US and Europe over the past few years. There was even a US computer chip made as recently as March 2023. This meant that North Korea had illicitly procured vital weapons components, snuck them into the country, assembled the missile, and shipped it to Russia in secret, where it had then been transported to the frontline and fired - all in a matter of months.

"This was the biggest surprise, that despite being under severe sanctions for almost two decades, North Korea is still managing to get its hands on all it needs to make its weapons, and with extraordinary speed," said Damien Spleeters, the deputy director at CAR.



Over in London, Joseph Byrne, a North Korea expert at the defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), was equally stunned.

"I never thought I would see North Korean ballistic missiles being used to kill people on European soil," he said. He and his team at RUSI have been tracking the shipment of North Korean weapons to Russia ever since Mr Kim met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Russia in September of last year to strike a suspected arms deal.

Using satellite imagery, they have been able to observe four Russian cargo ships shuttling back and forth between North Korea and a Russian military port, loaded with hundreds of containers at a time.

In total RUSI estimates 7,000 containers have been sent, filled with more than a million ammunition shells and grad rockets - the sort that can be fired out of trucks in large volleys. Their assessments are backed up by intelligence from the US, UK and South Korea, though Russia and North Korea have denied the trade.



"These shells and rockets are some of the most sought-after things in the world today and are allowing Russia to keep pounding Ukrainian cities at a time when the US and Europe have been faltering over what weapons to contribute," Mr Byrne said.
Buying and firing

But it is the arrival of ballistic missiles on the battlefield that has concerned Mr Byrne and his colleagues the most, because of what they reveal about North Korea's weapons programme.

Since the 1980s North Korea has sold its weapons abroad, largely to countries in the North Africa and the Middle East, including Libya, Syria and Iran. They have tended to be old, Soviet-style missiles with a poor reputation. There is evidence that Hamas fighters likely used some of Pyongyang's old rocket-propelled grenades in their attack last 7 October.Putin and Kim: Friends in need (of ammunition)
What weapons are being supplied to Ukraine?
What missiles has North Korea been testing?

But the missile fired on 2 January, that Ms Kimachuk took apart, was seemingly Pyongyang's most sophisticated short-range missile - the Hwasong 11 - capable of travelling up to 700km (435 miles).



Although the Ukrainians have downplayed their accuracy, Dr Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in North Korean weapons and non-proliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, says they appear to be not much worse than the Russian missiles.

The advantage of these missiles is that they are extremely cheap, explained Dr Lewis. This means you can buy more and fire more, in the hope of overwhelming air defences, which is exactly what the Russians appear to be doing.


This then raises the question of how many of these missiles the North Koreans can produce. The South Korean government recently observed North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, it says that Pyongyang's weapons factories were operating at full-tilt, and Dr Lewis, who has been studying these factories through satellites, reckons they can churn out a few hundred a year.

Still reeling from their discovery, Mr Spleeters and his team are now trying to work out how this is possible, given that companies are banned from selling parts to North Korea.


Many of the computer chips that are integral to modern weapons, that guide them through the air to their intended targets, are the same chips that are used to power our phones, washing machines and cars, Mr Spleeters explained.

These are being sold all over the world in staggering numbers. Manufacturers sell to distributors in their billions, who sell them on in their millions, meaning they often have no idea where their products end up.

Even so, Mr Byrne was frustrated to learn how many components in the missile had come from the West. It proved that North Korea's procurement networks were more robust and effective than even he, who investigates these networks, had realised.

From his experience, North Koreans based overseas set up fake companies in Hong Kong or other central Asian countries to buy the items using predominantly stolen cash. They then send the products onto North Korea, usually over its border with China. If a fake company is discovered and sanctioned, another will quickly pop up in its place.

Sanctions have long been considered an imperfect tool to combat these networks, but to have any hope of working they need to be regularly updated and enforced. Both Russia and China have refused to impose new sanctions on North Korea since 2017.



By buying Pyongyang's weapons, Moscow is now violating the very sanctions it once voted for as a member of the UN Security Council. Then earlier this year it effectively disbanded a UN panel that monitored sanctions breaches, likely to avoid scrutiny.

"We are witnessing the real-time crumbling of UN sanctions against North Korea, which buys Pyongyang a lot of breathing space", Mr Byrne said.

All this has implications that reach far beyond the war in Ukraine.

"The real winners here are the North Koreans", said Mr Byrne. "They have helped the Russians in a significant way, and this has bought them a tonne of leverage".

In March, RUSI documented large amounts of oil being shipped from Russia to North Korea, while railcars filled with what are thought to be rice and flour have been spotted crossing the countries' land border. This deal, thought to be worth hundreds of millions of pounds, will boost not only Pyongyang's economy, but its military.



Russia could also supply the North with the raw materials to continue making its missiles, or even military equipment such a fighter jets, and - at the most extreme end - the technical assistance to improve its nuclear weapons.

Additionally, the North is getting the chance to test its latest missiles in a real-war scenario for the first time. With this valuable data, it will be able to make them better.
Pyongyang: A major missile supplier?

More troubling still is that the war is providing North Korea with a shop window to the rest of the world.

Now that Pyongyang is mass producing these weapons, it will want to sell them to more countries, and if the missiles are good enough for Russia, they will be good enough for others, said Dr Lewis - especially as the Russians are setting the example that it is okay to violate sanctions.


He predicts going forward that North Korea will become a big supplier of missiles to countries in the China-Russia-Iran bloc. In the wake of Iran's assault on Israel this month, the US said it was "incredibly concerned" that North Korea could be working with Iran on its nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes.

"I see a lot of gloomy faces when we talk about this problem," said Mr Spleeters. "But the good news is that now we know how reliant they are on foreign technology, we can do something about it".

Mr Spleeters is optimistic that by working with manufacturers they can cut off North Korea's supply chains. His team has already succeeded in identifying and shutting down an illicit network before it was able to complete a critical sale.

But Dr Lewis is not convinced.

"We can make it harder, more inconvenient, maybe raise the cost, but none of this is going to prevent North Korea from making these weapons," he said, adding that the West had ultimately failed in its attempt to contain the rogue state.


Now not only are its missiles a source of prestige and political power, but they are also generating it vast amounts of money, Dr Lewis explained. So why would Kim Jong Un ever give them up now?

What weapons are being supplied to Ukraine?


What $61bn US aid boost could mean for Ukraine


Russia said to be using N Korean missiles in Ukraine


What missiles has North Korea been testing?


Kim and Putin go public – but is it all a show?


Putin and Kim: Friends in need (of ammunition)


The hidden village just metres from North Korea


North Korea says it's got eyes on the White House - so what?

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